Atlantic Basin Tropical Discussion Atlantic | Pacific

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081144
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA ENTERING THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 5N9W TO 4N11W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N21W 
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S46W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF 
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-44W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION 
FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR E OF 11W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA TO THE GULF COAST NEAR MOBILE 
ALABAMA AND COVERING THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A SURFACE 
RIDGE BUILDING S ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. NE SURFACE 
FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW GULF GENERATING 
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A 
LINE FROM GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 23N83W S OF THE FLORIDA 
KEYS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W INTO THE W ATLC 
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SE ACROSS GULF THROUGH SUN. 
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER EXTREME SW BAY OF CAMPECHE THU 
THROUGH SAT THEN SHIFT E ACROSS S GULF THROUGH SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM OVER COLOMBIA NW TO ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT 
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 80W GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 84W. 
THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG E 
TO NE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND BANKING LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INLAND 
OVER PANAMA S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-82W. AN AREA OF LOW/MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE E 
CARIBBEAN GIVING THE E CARIBBEAN ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 70W TO 
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INCLUDING THE E PORTION OF THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS 
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC WILL SHIFT E THROUGH SUN AS 
THE SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA SAT 
AND SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC E OF 60W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 60W-69W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N78W ALONG 29N79W INTO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N 
BETWEEN 75W-80W. A BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 60W WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE UPPER 
TROUGH ALONG 40W N OF 27N SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N39W TO 27N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND THE FRONT. A 
SECOND SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 
JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING W 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 24N45W TO 16N48W WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN AREA OF 
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE W TROPICAL ATLC 
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN GIVING THE W TROPICAL ATLC ISOLATED SHOWERS 
FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 55W-70W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES... 
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W 
ATLC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY E REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS LATE THU AND STALL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR W 
ATLC LATE FRI AND MERGE WITH TROUGH THEN SWEEPING E ON SAT. S 
PORTION OF FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 25N THROUGH SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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PAW