FXUS64 KJAN 081529 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
925 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012

.UPDATE...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING DOWN SOUTH INTO THE 
ARKLAMISS THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT SLID 
THROUGH THE REGION LATE YESTERDAY/OVERNIGHT. UPPER AIR PATTERN IS 
SUCH THAT CIRRUS...OCCASIONALLY MODERATELY THICK...WILL BE STREAMING 
INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF ZONES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MAY KEEP 
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN OTHERWISE THERE. IN 
ADDITION...AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE ESPECIALLY ALONG 
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY HAVE AT LEAST SOME COLD AIR 
STRATOCU BUILD DOWN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON 
HOURS. THIS CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO LIMIT TEMPS A BIT. BUT...ALL IN 
ALL...THE MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS PERHAPS STARTING OUT 
WITH MORE SUN THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE RELATIVELY QUICK WARMUP 
NECESSITATED RAISING HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME AREAS. 
FORECAST UPDATES OUT THE DOOR. /BB/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST WED FEB 8 2012/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A GUSTY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED
SPRINKLES FALLING FROM CLOUD LAYERS IN THE 5-8K FOOT RANGE. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN MIXING NICELY AND HOLDING UP IN THE M40S TO L50S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. READINGS SHOULD STILL BOTTOM CLOSE TO 40F AT MANY
LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL BE THINNING SLOWLY IN THE MID
LAYERS AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WNW ALOFT BUT HIGHER CLOUDS MAY BE MORE
STUBBORN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

THE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES AND WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE1038MB CENTERED OVER WRN NE THIS MORNING WILL BUILD 
INTO MO TONIGHT1032MB AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE MID SOUTH 
ON THURSDAY1028MB. NLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED 
TO MAINLY HIGH ALTITUDES AS PWATS PROGGED TO STAY BELOW 0.50 INCHES 
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN WEAK WAA BEGINS LIFTING 
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WSW. THESE TRENDS WILL CREATE THE BEST 
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FROSTY LOWS 
DIP TO THE 30-34F RANGE...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER CLOUDS DEPART FOR 
SEVERAL HOURS AT A TIME.

ENOUGH SUNSHINE THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ACTUALLY FALLING JUST 
SHORT OF NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. MAV MOS GUIDANCE
ADJUSTED ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOWARD COOLER ENSEMBLE NUMBERS ON 
THURSDAY...OTHERWISE GENERALLY ACCEPTED. /40/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BY FRIDAY THE REGION WILL BE 
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE 
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE 
ALONG THE FRONT TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION WITH ITS 
PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH 
IT. THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN 
ARCTIC 1040MB SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTH IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL BRING A 
BOUT OF FAIRLY CHILLY WEATHERESPECIALLY AS COMPARED TO THE WAY THIS 
WINTER HAS BEEN GOING TO THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS 
LOOKING TO BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP 
INTO THE 20S FOR SAT. AND SUN. NIGHTS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE CENTER 
OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH SO WE LIKELY WONT GET TO TAKE 
FULL ADVANTAGE OF OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGI.E. WINDS WILL REMAIN 
UP A LITTLE DURING THE NIGHTS AND THUS COLDER CONDITIONS. 

THE SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING WILL HEAD OFF TO THE EAST ON 
MONDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH SWINGS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA COME MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE 
FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...A BIGGER SYSTEM DIGS IN THE 
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THE SYSTEM AND 
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS IT A BIT FURTHER NORTH 
WITH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE. THE GFS BRINGS IN A FAIRLY LOW SFC LOW 
ACROSS OK INTO MO...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH HARDER TO FIND SFC 
LOW BUT APPEARS TO KEEP IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. WILL ADD SOME 
THUNDER WORDING FOR THE SYSTEM PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS 
BOTH INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM WITH 
THE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD GET 
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS CLEARS 
THE RAIN OUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF ON WED. WITH THE 
CONTINUED DISCREPANCY WITH THE MODELS...WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM 
GUIDANCE. 
/28/

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OUT THERE DURING THE 
COURSE OF THE DAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT TAF SITES OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOOK FOR NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE 
MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING TO 
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /19/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       61  34  56  35 /   0   0   2   4 
MERIDIAN      63  33  58  32 /   0   0   1   4 
VICKSBURG     60  34  55  35 /   0   0   3   5 
HATTIESBURG   65  37  60  35 /   0   0   1   6 
NATCHEZ       61  36  56  36 /   0   0   3   4 
GREENVILLE    56  33  50  33 /   0   0   4   7 
GREENWOOD     56  31  52  32 /   0   0   3   5 

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

BB/19/40/28